Mass EV adoption and Gas Station Closures: A Network-Based Analysis for Calgary

Abstract

In response to global environmental concerns and Canada’s ambitious climate policies, a rapid transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) is underway. Statistics Canada data show a strong shift toward electrified vehicles over the past five years. Compared to the same quarter in 2020, new registrations in Q2 2025 increased by approximately 375% for battery-electric vehicles, 441% for plug-in hybrids, and an even sharper 929% for conventional hybrids. This sustained multi-fold growth highlights the accelerating pace of electrification, even as internal combustion vehicles remain a significant share of the fleet during the transition period. This research examines how this transition affects gasoline refueling accessibility for remaining ICE drivers in Calgary and other major Alberta cities. Using a quantitative geospatial methodology, the study integrates ArcGIS network analysis with Monte Carlo simulations of gasoline-station closures to measure additional detour distances required for refueling as EV adoption leads to gasoline demand reduction and station viability. The simulation framework quantifies how gasoline-station contraction increases refueling burden, using trip-weighted mean detour as the primary metric. It also identifies transition points using curve-based markers, indicating when the network shifts from robust to configuration-sensitive and eventually operationally inadequate. Although the analysis focuses explicitly on refueling accessibility rather than traffic modeling, the findings carry broader implications for transportation planning. Increasing detours and localized refueling gaps can influence route choice, commuter reliability, and mobility equity for ICE users during the transition period. The results therefore support proactive planning for infrastructure adaptation as EV adoption accelerates. By identifying when and where refueling accessibility becomes strained, this study provides a data-driven foundation to support municipal planners and policymakers. Its insights can guide strategic station retention, deployment of hybrid refueling sites, and coordinated expansion of EV charging infrastructure, contributing to a balanced, efficient, and equitable transition aligned with Canada’s long-term decarbonization goals.