Simplifying The Oil Climate Index: Evaluation Of Methods To Increase Accessibility

Abstract

Various oil sector stakeholders believe that the Oil Production Greenhouse gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE), a component of the Oil Climate Index, can encourage improvements in energy efficiency, emissions reductions, and carbon management if it is operationalized for users in specific oil companies. One deterrent for wide-spread industry adoption of OPGEE is its perceived complexity. Here I attempt to simplify the user experience by searching for the salient model inputs that produce accurate emissions estimates. Two approaches are investigated: Approach 1 evaluates the error generated from using salient model inputs identified in a previous study but applied to a small number of oil pathways. Approach 2 explores the sensitivity of all primary model inputs for nine hypothetical oil fields based on 64 global oils on emissions estimates to identify and compare salient inputs. Salient inputs from Approach 1 produce emissions that exceed ±20% error 53% of the time and identified salient inputs from Approach 2 are inconsistent across hypothetical fields, implying that universal salient inputs capable of generating accurate emission estimates do not exist. Recommendations are made for simplifying OPGEE’s user interface instead of minimizing data requirements.