The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Transit Mode Choice in Calgary, Alberta

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced travel demand globally across all modes. Public transit ridership has been especially affected, as COVID-19 has reduced the attractiveness of transit compared to unshared transportation modes. Transit agencies worldwide have reduced service in response to lost fare revenue and reduced ridership. To recover from the pandemic and remain a viable mobility alternative, transit agencies must regain mode share by providing a safe and attractive customer experience. This thesis presents the design and findings of a stated preference (SP) survey conducted in Calgary, Alberta to investigate the effects of perceived COVID-19 risk, pandemic safety measures, transit service characteristics, and individual attributes on the attractiveness of transit. SP scenarios were generated using a Bayesian D-efficient design and were pivoted on respondents’ answers to previous questions. Multinomial logit, nested logit, and mixed logit models were estimated using the survey results. The estimation results show that transit agencies can attract riders by implementing mandatory masking policies and reducing in-vehicle crowding. Safety measures such as backdoor boarding and daily deep cleaning are unlikely to attract riders to transit. Higher COVID-19 risk levels, as measured by the number of daily cases in the study area, decrease the attractiveness of transit. Females and older respondents perceived transit modes as less attractive compared to males and younger respondents. Respondents who had been at least partially vaccinated perceived transit as more attractive compared to those who were unvaccinated.