The history and future of the rare, endemic plant species, Draba yukonensis (Yukon Draba)

Abstract

Many species in Canada remain poorly characterized regarding the projected impact of climate change. Here, I report my results from species distribution modeling for the rare, Yukon endemic plant, Draba yukonensis. Predicted change in range size in 2070 is an increase of 171375.1-184318.0 km2, which is surprising considering its limited known range. Overlap of predicted future and current ranges is 96.9-97.4%. Occurrence of protected areas in the predicted future range is 9.7-10.5%. It is possible that D. yukonensis represents a recently originated variety of a more common species that recently experienced polyploidization. I therefore performed phylogenetic analyses to elucidate relationships of D. yukonensis with other Draba species in the Yukon. I found that D. yukonensis is appropriately delineated as a Canadian endemic species and may be an allopolyploid of D. fladnizensis and D. lactea, or, likelier, is closely related to D. lactea. Overall, this work provides important predictions regarding where D. yukonensis could require interventions to aid its conservation.