Refinery GHG Emissions of US, Canada and EU from 2019 to 2050: An Exploration of Decarbonization Scenarios

Abstract

This thesis evaluates how refinery operations and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are affected by economy-wide decarbonization scenarios and emissions mitigation measures in the United States (US), Canada and the European Union (EU) out to 2050. This study characterizes scenarios of potential future refinery transformations and resulting emissions for achieving net zero goals. Refinery emissions are estimated for each region using the open-source modelling tool called Petroleum Refining Life Cycle Inventory Model (PRELIM). Multilinear regression modelling and optimization techniques are applied to regional historic refinery data as an initial estimate of potential future operational changes in refineries and resulting emissions. Decarbonization scenarios with GHG reduction targets are compared to the estimates of future refinery changes including shifting refinery product demand (e.g., due to an increase in electric vehicle penetration that will decrease demand for conventional transportation fuels), crude quality, and refining configuration. While economy-wide decarbonization scenarios are characterized reasonably well for the transportation sector, future refinery operations are not adequately considered. This thesis helps to identify the potential changes could take place in future refineries and how they react to decarbonization pressures. The total possible GHG emissions from regional refineries in 2030 and 2050 are estimated and compared with 2019 emission results. By adjusting refinery output to match product demand projections in the most ambitious 2050 decarbonization scenarios as well as potential shifts in crude quality and refinery utilization, the refining emissions in the US, Canada, and the EU can be reduced by 84%, 68% and 97% compared to 2019 emission results without mitigation measures, respectively. Additionally, emissions based on implementing GHG mitigation measures in refineries such as advanced energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and alternate energy input can reduce emissions by 97%, 95% and 99% with energy input technologies which has the largest impacts compared to 2019 in the US, Canada, and the EU respectively. The outcome of this research could enable oil companies and government policymakers to understand the impacts of different operational changes in refineries and conduct future decarbonization assessments as needed to achieve general insights associated with GHG emissions.