Urbanizing the Wild: Urban Coyote Dynamic Functional Connectivity in the City of Calgary, Alberta, and the Development of a Novel Fuzzy Logic Expert Consensus Approach to Ecological Modeling

Abstract

The rapid development and expansion of cities prompts significant species declines and changes in wildlife population, behavior, and genetic flow. In some fragmenting landscapes, conservation managers have engaged in functional connectivity (FC) initiatives as a countermeasure. It can help identify areas to focus de-fragmentation and area characteristics (width, composition) that are crucial for animal dispersal through cities. However, its application in urban environments for this purpose is very recent. In this study, the trends of FC for urban wildlife were reviewed; a GIS-multicriteria fuzzy logic expert consensus approach for modeling expert knowledge to form group consensus opinions was developed; and seasonal changes in FC for coyotes in the city of Calgary, Alberta, Canada, were evaluated. The suitability models produced from the consensus approach were validated with empirical data and used to assess FC for urban coyotes. FC validated with road mortality data was only significant during the dispersal period and not during pup-rearing or breeding. This dispersal period network likely reflected transient and disperser connectivity not resident. Priority areas and their connectivity contributions identified from this study can help inform the direction of City of Calgary urban green infrastructure development.