Modeling Changes in Hydrate Stability Associated with Arctic Warming and its Impact on Slope

Abstract

If global warming continues at its current rate, widespread methane hydrate dissociation may occur leading to submarine slope instabilities. In this study, numerical models were developed to investigate the impact of different parameters, such as geothermal gradient, slope angle, rate of seafloor temperature rise, and hydrate saturation on the dissociated volume and potential for slope instabilities. It was found that the geothermal gradient impacts the shape of the hydrate stability zone and the pattern of hydrate dissociation. Slope stability analyses showed that steeper slopes fail earlier and produce lower dissociated hydrate volumes. Higher rate of seafloor temperature produces larger dissociated volume and leads to earlier slope failure. On the other hand, higher hydrate saturation leads to lower hydrate dissociated volume and causes to fail slope comparatively later than a slope with lower hydrate saturation.