Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) of Emerging Technologies: A Case Study of Laboratory Based Carbon Fiber Production from Alberta Oilsands Asphaltene (AOA)

Abstract

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA) techniques are widely performed in commercial-scale technologies to quantify environmental and economic impacts. Applying LCA and TEA to emerging technologies can help technology developers identify opportunities to improve technical performance, reduce cost and environmental impacts, and evaluate scaling strategies. Existing LCA and TEA frameworks are not easily applied to emerging technologies at the laboratory-scale for a variety of reasons, including difficulty in collecting comprehensive and representative data, high variability in measured performance, and uncertainty over how laboratory-scale performance may scale to a commercial process. These challenges are examined through a case study centered around the manufacturing of carbon fiber using Alberta Oilsands Asphaltene (AOA). This thesis documents the LCA and TEA of an unoptimized laboratory-scale AOA carbon fiber manufacturing process with the goal of forecasting the potential environmental and economic impacts of a future commercial-scale AOA manufacturing process. Given its high carbon content, AOA has the potential to be a valuable precursor in carbon fiber manufacturing and could be comparable to incumbent, polyacrylonitrile (PAN) based carbon fibers. As the production yield of AOA carbon fiber production increases from 23% to 53%, the estimated cost ranges from USD 22.4 to 9.6 per kg, and the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) vary from 18.2 to 8.6 kg CO2 eq/kg. In comparison to PAN, the estimated AOA carbon fibers had significantly lower costs and emissions. However, a direct comparison of emerging AOA carbon fiber manufacturing with the commercial PAN carbon fiber manufacturing may not be the most prudent approach. Different scaling approaches, availability of data, and technological and market uncertainties can lead to substantial shifts in LCA and TEA results of an emerging technology. The LCA and TEA findings of this thesis benefit three primary groups: technology developers, decision makers, and practitioners in the field of LCA and TEA. Technology developers and decision-makers can utilize these findings to bridge the gap between lab and commercial processes, considering environmental and economic factors. The thesis explores how practitioners should interpret results, particularly from the perspectives of technology developers and decision-makers.