Estimating the Impact of Weather Variables on Cycling Infrastructure Usage

Abstract

Cycling has gained increased attention among both researchers and public city planners in the last two decades as a sustainable means of transportation. Compared to users of other modes of transportation, cyclists are more exposed to weather conditions. As a result, cycling infrastructure usage changes throughout the year because of highly variable weather conditions. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of weather variables on cycling infrastructure usage. The study develops a model that estimates changes in cycling infrastructure usage for different months of the year using weather variables namely, temperature, precipitation, snow on the ground, wind and sunlight. Cycling infrastructure usage data from the city of Calgary was modeled using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to suite unbalanced and correlated data. The model that was developed can help municipalities for cycling network planning such as decision making on investments, maintenance and modifications to the cycling infrastructure.