Development of a tour-based urban commercial vehicle movement model

Abstract

Urban commercial vehicle movements are increasingly of concern to policy makers, for reasons of both equity and efficiency. This thesis presents a system for modelling commercial movements based on data from Calgary, Canada. The resulting system of models includes a novel agent-based microsimulation framework, using a tour-based approach and emphasizing important elements of urban commercial movement, including the role of service delivery, light commercial vehicles and trip chaining. The microsimulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to assign tour purpose, vehicle type, next stop purpose, next stop location, and next stop duration. Tours are 'grown' using a return-to-establishment alternative within the next stop purpose allocation, which is consistent with the nature of tour making in urban commercial movements. The Monte Carlo probabilities are established using primarily a series of logit models, with coefficients estimated based on the observed behaviour of different segments of commercial movements.